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Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-17T20:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23802/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23815/1

Model Inputs - this prediction (unlike two other predictions that are based on the analysis of the asymmetrical halo) is based on the analysis of the bright bulk of the CME with the longitude corresponding to the location of the associated X2.2 class flare from 13229 (N25E65):

2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-65.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=1297.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-02-17T22:59Z

Model Output:

Earth Minor Impact (glancing blow):
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-20T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-21T10:26Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-19T09:54Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-20T04:46Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-21T12:00Z

Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Inner Planets animations: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif 

Earth timelines: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 18.87 hour(s)
Difference: -4.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-02-19T15:00Z

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